A Path to Regeneration beyond the 3 Horizons.

Ernesto van Peborgh
8 min readApr 3, 2024

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Uniting Technology and Nature for a Thriving Future

Regeneration, as previously discussed, is not just a systemic evolutionary process but essentially life itself — a thriving flow that intricately weaves together diverse, interdependent elements to sustain life.

Regeneration sustains life

Simplifying this, we understand regeneration as the very essence of vitality and systemic interconnectivity, manifesting through patterns and principles that drive a purposeful evolutionary process.

In this article, I want to embark on the exercise to elucidate how the systemic flow of regeneration, with its emergent properties, might be elusive from the perspective of the old paradigm.

This challenge stems from regeneration’s decentralized nature, reminiscent of roots developing unseen before any sprouting occurs.

To navigate this complexity, I’ll leverage the “bamboo effect,” Nora Bateson’s concept of aphanipoiesis, and Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons model.

This exploration will particularly highlight the Third Horizon, where today’s invisible pre-emergence state holds the promise of a transformative future. This horizon encapsulates the potential for systemic change and regeneration, illustrating how current unseen efforts are paving the way for the emergence of new paradigms.

These frameworks help illuminate the unseen processes of change that precede emergence and visible transformation, offering insights into the dynamic interplay between the invisible foundation and its tangible outcomes.

It is by examining the unseen preparatory stages that lead to the “bamboo effect,” exploring the essence of aphanipoiesis, and understanding the transition from the second to the third horizon, we can begin to appreciate the intricate and often subtle processes that drive systemic regeneration.

The “bamboo effect” serves as a profound metaphor within the narrative of regeneration. It illustrates the silent, yet relentless, accumulation of strength and potential beneath the surface. For years, the bamboo’s roots expand unseen, a hidden web of life laying the groundwork for future growth. Then, when conditions align, this concealed energy manifests in a rapid, visible surge toward the sky. This process reflects the inherent patience and resilience required for transformative change. Just as the bamboo quietly prepares for its moment of explosive growth, so too do regenerative efforts simmer below the threshold of visibility, awaiting the right moment to reveal their full impact. The bamboo effect reminds us that true change, both in nature and within our societies, often begins in the quiet depths, nurtured by time and unseen forces, before it springs forth for the world to see.

The bamboo effect resonates with Nora Bateson’s notion of Aphanipoiesis, highlighting a pre-emergence state where the relational processes activate conditions that nurture the potential for emergence.

This term describes the subtle, yet profound ways in which life’s diverse and interdependent elements coalesce, weaving together to form an emergent, purposeful flow. Aphanipoiesis captures the essence of life’s complexity, where myriad interactions within a system remain invisible, yet are integral to its evolution and vitality. It emphasizes how regeneration — rooted in diversity and gaining through interdependence — becomes an interbeing system.

This invisible weaving together of life’s tapestry underpins the regeneration process, setting the stage for the sudden and visible growth reminiscent of the bamboo’s rapid emergence.

Viewed through an evolutionary lens, as this graph’s flowing waves suggest, Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons framework reveals itself to be a regenerative, thriving evolutionary process.

This framework provides a powerful tool for understanding the transformation of systems through time, inviting us to embrace a systemic perspective. By integrating this perspective into the framework, we uncover its nature as an evolutionary process, crucial for grasping the concept of regeneration. This approach not only enriches our understanding of change but also enhances our capacity to engage with regeneration as a dynamic, systemic force, unfolding across different stages of evolution within our systems and practices.

For those unfamiliar with the Three Horizons framework, here is a concise overview to aid in understanding its application within this article. Horizon 1 symbolizes the present state, often termed ‘business as usual,’ dominated by conventional practices. Horizon 2 marks a phase of transition, introducing innovative technologies and concepts that begin to question and disrupt existing norms. Lastly, Horizon 3 projects into the long-term future, anticipating a profound transformation towards sustainable and regenerative systems and paradigms.

In this evolutionary journey, the Third Horizon emerges as a distinctive property of a new system born from the ongoing evolutionary process, characterized by cycles of decay, death, and renewal.

Within this cycle, Horizon 1, or ‘business as usual,’ is in a state of decay, gradually giving way to the emergence of Horizon 3, which represents a transformative shift towards a regenerative future.

Horizon 2 occupies a pivotal transitional space in this process. It serves a dual purpose: on one hand, it supports Horizon 1 as the existing system attempts to sustain itself, often by co-opting innovations from Horizon 2.

On the other hand, Horizon 3 draws strength and vitality from Horizon 2’s innovations, which are instrumental in shaping a regenerative future.

This innovative force within Horizon 2, which we can term “RegenTech, plays a critical role in bridging the old and the new.

RegenTech encompasses technologies and approaches that underpin the shift towards sustainability and regeneration, acting as a catalyst for the transition from the decaying practices of Horizon 1 to the emerging regenerative paradigm of Horizon 3.

By understanding the Three Horizons Framework as an evolutionary process, we can appreciate the dynamic interplay between sustaining the old, fostering innovation, and embracing the emergence of new regenerative systems. This perspective highlights the importance of nurturing innovations in Horizon 2 that empower the growth and realization of Horizon 3, ultimately leading to a sustainable and regenerative future.

So, what is unfolding?

What is unfolding within this evolutionary dynamic is a fresh paradigm, brought to life by visionaries such as Daniel Christian Wahl, John Fullerton, Bill Reed, Laura Storm, Giles Hutchins, and Carol Sanford, among others. These pioneers are instrumental in crafting the bridge that connects us to the intricate patterns and principles of living systems, integrating this knowledge into a unified cosmovision.

Their collective work across regenerative cultures, economics, design principles, and leadership does more than theorize; it actively weaves the fabric of Horizon 3 into being. Through their efforts, they are constructing a narrative and a worldview that embraces the profound wisdom of living systems, striving to align humanity with the timeless virtues of interconnectedness and interdependence.

This is the essence of how new paradigms take shape: by visualizing and then manifesting them into reality.

Simultaneously, Horizon 2 lays the groundwork for the practical engineering and implementation of a regenerative ecosystem. As we shift into this intermediary phase, we’re met with the burgeoning potential of exponential technologies — blockchain, cryptography, artificial intelligence, and the nascent field of digital biology. These innovations aren’t just technological advancements; they’re the building blocks of Horizon 2, enabling the transition from conceptual frameworks of regeneration to tangible, actionable ecosystems. Through these technologies, the visionary paradigms proposed by pioneers in Horizon 3 find their expression in the real world, bridging the gap between theoretical ideals and practical application.

This shift from biology as a science to an engineering discipline heralds a move from isolated discoveries to systemic advancements, where knowledge compounds dynamically.

This integration of biology with computer science opens the door to tools capable of deciphering the complexities of life into actionable, scalable frameworks. It’s an approach that acknowledges the anthropogenic impacts of our actions and seeks alignment with nature’s rhythms. By recognizing and restoring the value of natural systems as essential assets for our well-being, this perspective invites a reimagining of production and economic models. It aims to internalize what were once considered externalities into a new paradigm of incentives for preserving and enhancing nature, transforming it into living capital that resonates with the patterns and principles of life itself.

In this evolutionary journey, the emergence of a new horizon — a new paradigm — unfolds within a complex, systemic interplay that is both interdependent and integral.

Horizon 3 embodies a vision that is intrinsically aligned with the wisdom of living systems, marked by a deep engagement with syntropic forces that inject energy and order into the fabric of life. This horizon is not an abstract ideal but a practical endeavor, where the principles and patterns that govern life are actively woven into the creation of systems that mirror nature’s self-sustaining processes.

As Horizon 1 gradually recedes, consumed by its own contradictions, the dynamic interplay between Horizons 2 and 3 paves the way for the regenerative paradigm.

A horizons-free vision

Embracing a “horizons-free” vision, we acknowledge the deep interconnectedness within all aspects of life, urging a harmonious alignment with its intrinsic patterns and principles.

This perspective fosters a state of interbeing, tethering us to life’s vibrant and unyielding force. The synergy between Horizon 2’s Regentech innovations and Horizon 3’s visionary goals serves as a transformative catalyst, where technology meets the profound insights of living systems to outline a sustainable, thriving future.

In this fusion, humanity’s efforts enhance the vitality of all life, transcending Horizon 1’s limitations and heralding a regenerative paradigm. Horizon 3 embodies a profound comprehension of living systems, championing the syntropic forces that infuse energy and order into nature. Its core lies not in abstraction but in the active application of life’s principles, crafting systems that emulate nature’s self-sustaining processes.

This vision of a world where human actions bolster the flourishing of life is brought closer to reality through the innovative curve of Regentech, which equips us with the means to actualize Horizon 3’s aspirations.

As we navigate the Three Horizons framework, we journey beyond present constraints to envisage a future where technology and ecological wisdom merge, paving the way for a regenerative existence. This journey transcends traditional boundaries, proposing a “horizon’s free” outlook that integrates our actions with the rhythms of the natural world, advocating for a future that not only sustains but regenerates, knitting humanity and nature into a harmonious coexistence.

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Ernesto van Peborgh

Entrepreneur, writer, filmmaker, Harvard MBA. Builder of systemic interactive networks for knowledge management.