Understanding our Future. Advanced application of The Three Horizons Framework
This Framework outlines three “Horizons” representing different aspects of innovation and transition within societies or organizations.
If you’re not acquainted with the Three Horizons framework, please follow this link. or see Appendix One at the document’s end for more information.
At the outset of this exploration into the three horizons, it’s crucial to understand the interdependence of these paradigms, particularly how Horizon One, once bolstered by Horizon Two, begins to wane as the conditions that fuel Horizon Two diminish.
This article not only claims to demonstrate the inevitable self-extinction path of Horizon One, characterized by the business as usual and prevailing paradigm, but also aims to shed light and offer hope on constructing the necessary bridges for a successful transition to Horizon Three.
It underscores the urgency of moving beyond the unsustainable practices of Horizon One, advocating for a transformative leap into Horizon 3, where sustainability and regeneration become the core principles guiding our actions and decisions. Through an in-depth exploration of the emerging potentials within Horizon Two, this piece seeks to inspire a collective awakening and an individual migration towards aligning with the patterns and principles of living systems, thereby facilitating a harmonious and sustainable coexistence with our planet.
As the supportive mechanisms of Horizon Two recede, Horizon One loses its vitality, signaling not just a decline but a transition urging us towards the regenerative prospects of Horizon Three.
This shift underscores the critical juncture at which we find ourselves, confronting the unsustainable trajectory of our current systems.
Horizon Two, the bedrock of innovations supporting Horizon One, is unmistakably on a decline, inevitably pushing Horizon One towards collapse.
This collapse is partly due to the faltering of key innovation drivers that were part and necessary drives to make Horizon One attain its current paradigm dominance.
Three critical factors contributing to this scenario include:
A) The Demise of Energy
The decline in cheap and accessible energy sources challenges the energy-intensive systems of Horizon One
The “Concept of Carbon Pulse”, proposed by Nate Hagens highlights the temporary boost in economic growth and technological development powered by the abundant and cheap energy from fossil fuels. (If you are not familiar with the concept I recommend assisting to this video ( Minute 8:00) or for reading preference link here.)
Fact #1: Historically the amount of energy needed to provide energy for the rest of society was around 5%. Now we’re over 10%. We’re using 10 or more percent of our energy just to get the energy refine it and deliver it to the rest of society.
Fact#2: In the 1920s, the energy return on investment was significantly higher, where metaphorically, investing the energy equivalent of one barrel of oil could yield 120 barrels of oil.
This return on energy has seen a dramatic decline. Nowadays, the same investment yields a mere five barrels of oil, highlighting a massive decrease in the efficiency of our energy extraction processes over the last century. For further insights see Indy Johar Video (Minute 11:30)
This change underscores a critical shift in the energy landscape, emphasizing the increased energy costs associated with oil extraction today.
Our modern lifestyles rely heavily on an increasing extraction of fossil fuels, as illustrated by a graph showing the dynamics of U.S. oil production.
Oil production peaked in 1970, then saw a decline, only to recover through the exploitation of various oil sources, including conventional oil, the North Slope of Alaska, offshore reserves, and, notably, tight oil or shale oil, which has driven all production increases since 2010.
This reliance on shale, essentially the source rock, signifies a precarious position: if drilling ceases for any reason, the base of our oil supply depletes at 37% annually, necessitating ever more effort just to maintain current output levels, highlighting the environmental, economic, and energetic costs of sustaining such a system.
B) Debt Delusion
Navigating the Madoff Effect in Global Finance
Spiraling debt levels cannot sustain long-term economic growth, leading to financial instability.
When we broadly define debt to encompass all monetary claims on physical reality — encompassing stocks, bonds, cash, and money market funds — the scale of global financial obligations becomes startlingly apparent, nearing $400 trillion. This figure starkly contrasts with the global GDP, which stands at approximately $100 trillion.
Check US debt Clock here
As global debt soars to unprecedented levels, we find ourselves trapped in a cycle where monetary claims on ecological and energetic realities grow increasingly unsustainable.
This discrepancy between the magnitude of financial claims and the economic output capable of fulfilling these claims casts a shadow of doubt on the repayability of such debt. For a comprehensive understanding, I recommend exploring the dialogue between Nate Hagens and John Fullerton.
Essentially, for every dollar of global economic activity, there are four dollars of claims against it, suggesting an unsustainable imbalance. If these monetary claims were to be simultaneously called in, the current economic structure would be incapable of converting such a vast sum into physical assets or services without precipitating a significant devaluation of financial instruments or, worse, triggering a comprehensive economic collapse.
This disproportionality not only questions the sustainability of our financial systems but also hints at a broader, more systemic risk: the potential impossibility of repaying or realizing the value of these claims within the current economic paradigm, (Horizon One )especially when considering the additional constraints of energy resources and ecological limits.
The stark revelation that global debt has ballooned to quadruple the size of the world’s GDP unveils another troubling scenario: we are incessantly printing money (a deep dive into the genesis of money is warranted here) to perpetuate the Horizon One paradigm.
This unsustainable model thrives on the mantra of ‘drill, drill, drill’ leveraging the dwindling reserves of fossil fuels despite the well-documented ecological fallout, all the while being buoyed by an ever-increasing mountain of debt.
Any finance neophyte could deduce the stark inevitability: this debt is fundamentally unrepayable. We are hitting up against a planetary boundary, witnessing not just a depletion of fossil resources but a systemic erosion of the very assets that underpin life itself — our living capital.
This dire conjunction spells a self-terminating trajectory.
Echoing the oft-quoted adage, believing in infinite growth on a finite planet is folly, a delusion entertained by economists and madmen alike. Through this lens, one can’t help but ponder the trajectory we’re on, underscoring the pressing need for a seismic shift in how we value and interact with our planet’s finite resources.
C) Planetary Boundaries
The Exceeding of Ecological Limits Threatens the Physical Basis of Horizon One.
If the term “Planetary Boundaries” hasn’t yet infiltrated your lexicon, consider this an urgent call to familiarize yourself.
This concept isn’t merely academic; it’s a clarion call to recognize the precarious edge upon which our economic systems, particularly those within the Horizon One paradigm, precariously balance.
The unfettered push beyond ecological limits not only jeopardizes the environmental scaffolding essential to our survival but starkly highlights the inadequacies of a Horizon One mindset.
In the face of this existential threat, clinging to a reductionist, mechanistic worldview is tantamount to navigating a spacecraft with a map of the seas.
Our collective cognitive firmware, especially for those of us in the vicinity of 60 years, demands an urgent upgrade. We have been stewards of a world during which an astonishing 70% of living life has been depleted under our watch.
Let that sink in deeply, stir it around in your consciousness.
It’s a sobering reality to grapple with, a stark indicator of the necessity to shift gears towards a more holistic, integrative approach to our interaction with the planet’s finite resources.
This is not merely an ecological imperative but a foundational reevaluation of how we conceive growth, value, and sustainability. As we stand at this critical juncture, the transition from Horizon One to the emergent paradigm of Horizon Three isn’t just preferable; it’s essential for the continuation of our global society as we know it.
The pathway forward requires us to weave ecological consciousness into the very fabric of our economic and social systems, ensuring that future generations inherit a world where the balance between human activity and planetary health is not just maintained but enriched.
You’re likely pondering, “What now?”
Years of action-oriented conditioning have primed us to ask,
“What do we do?” — a reflection of a deep imbalance with simply being.
At this critical juncture, the pertinent question shifts to, “How are you being?”
Engaging with Bill Reed, the conversation often orbits around the notion that regenerative design transcends the mere crafting of objects, buildings, or landscapes.
Instead, it’s an endeavor in sculpting human consciousness — a transformation not achieved through action but fostered in a state of being.
Thich Nhat Hanh articulates this as “interbeing,” a profound connection with all sentient life.
Within this realm, a capacity exists — a part of the burgeoning Horizon Three— ushering us into a phase of “interbecoming.”
Embracing regeneration means aligning with the rhythms and principles of living systems.
We are venturing into uncharted territory, navigating a period of profound transition that is uniquely personal and collective in its nature.
At this pivotal moment, we find ourselves constructing bridges between Horizon One and Horizon Three, a task that unfolds in two critical dimensions. Firstly, it involves a deep exploration of the emerging potential within Horizon Two, identifying innovations that can sustain our journey forward. Simultaneously, this transition is deeply personal, rooted in an individual awakening, a quest for alignment with the rhythms and principles that govern living systems.
From this personal vantage point, I posit that the bridge facilitating this monumental shift is fundamentally anchored in the interplay of curiosity, capacity, and capability. This perspective, inherently subjective, offers a glimpse into the transformative potential of embracing these three pivotal elements as the foundation for navigating the complexities of our evolving world.
Curiosity, Capacity, and Capability
The triad of curiosity, capacity, and capability forms a potential bridge, a pathway that I see as facilitating the transition from Horizon One to Horizon Three.
Let’s explore these dimensions.
Curiosity taps into the internal realization that we might be disconnected from our true purpose, a feeling of existential void that either propels us towards capacity or leads us into the depths of despair.
Curiosity, then, is our beacon — a proactive quest for understanding, a relentless pursuit driven by discomfort from not being aligned with our essence. It’s about reaching out, connecting with others on a similar quest, and drawing insight from those who tread the path before us.
Once curiosity kindles the spark of inquiry, Capacity builds — the deep, intuitive grasp of the new horizons unfolding before us.
It’s about internalizing the essence of Horizon Two’s innovations and weaving them into the regenerative fabric of living systems.
This capacity isn’t just about acquiring knowledge; it’s about embodying a new way of being that resonates with the earth’s innate wisdom. In this transformative process, we don’t just learn; we evolve, expanding our capability to live, design, and thrive in harmony with the planet.
This journey from curiosity through capacity to capability marks the genesis of a regenerative mindset, pivotal for navigating the complexities of our time.
Once this capacity is solidified with purpose, collective action, and an understanding of the potential of innovations emerging from Horizon Two, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment of evolving from capacity to Capability, and from there, to implementation.
Curiosity, capacity, and capability form an iterative, circular journey, not a linear path. This virtuous cycle empowers each stage, continuously building upon the last while also enhancing the first. It’s an ever-evolving process where curiosity fuels capacity, capacity expands capability, and capability, in turn, deepens curiosity, creating an endless loop of growth and empowerment.
This is uncharted territory for all of us, akin to embarking on a collective ascent of a vast, unexplored mountain.
Each of us forges our path, navigating unique trails that, while solitary at times, occasionally converge with those of fellow climbers.
This journey, inherently personal and reflective of our individual rhythms, is unified by a shared destination.
The beauty of this collective endeavor lies in the coming together of diverse paths, converging towards Horizon Three, which as seen in green in the graph above, is already surging forward in an exponential, vertical climb. Embracing regeneration, aligning with the living systems’ rhythms and principles through the lenses of curiosity, capacity, and capability, not only guides our steps but illuminates the interconnectedness of our paths. This convergence symbolizes a broader, communal stride towards a regenerative future, one where the collective pursuit of understanding, growth, and transformation heralds the dawn of a new era.
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Appendix 1:
Horizon One (H1) represents the current status quo or business as usual.
It encompasses the dominant systems and practices that define the present but are in decline due to being unsustainable or increasingly ineffective.
Horizon Three (H3) envisions a new paradigm or the future state that emerges as the new status quo. It is characterized by fundamentally different practices, values, or systems that are sustainable and fit for future challenges.
Horizon Two (H2) acts as the transitional space where innovative practices, technologies, and ideas emerge. These innovations challenge the status quo (H1) and lay the groundwork for the new paradigm (H3)
