Seeing Systems in Motion — A Guide to Understanding the Three Horizons
We stand at a pivotal moment in history — a time when the systems we’ve relied on for decades are unraveling, while new paradigms are just beginning to emerge. To navigate this moment, we need a new way of thinking: a systemic lens that reveals the interconnections and feedback loops driving change. This perspective allows us to see the world not as a series of isolated events but as an evolving flow — a dance between forces of collapse and renewal, where what we do today shapes the future that unfolds tomorrow.
If you missed Part one , There I introduced the systemic lens as a powerful tool to understand the profound transitions shaping our time. In it, I explored the interplay of entropy (decline) and syntropy (renewal) and highlighted the Three Horizons framework, which maps the decline of Horizon 1, the disruptions of Horizon 2, and the potential emergence of Horizon 3.
Breaking Free from Linear Thinking: Embracing the Flow of Systems
So how do you start developing systemic thinking to make sense of the forces at play in our time? First, you need to break free from the straightjacket of linear, cause-and-effect thinking. The world doesn’t operate like a domino chain, where one event triggers the next in a neat, predictable sequence. Instead, systems are an interplay of forces — dynamic, adaptive, and always in search of balance.
But here’s the catch: that balance is inherently unstable.
Yes, systems can reach moments of equilibrium — homeostasis, if you will — but they are also always in flux, adjusting, recalibrating, sometimes tumbling into chaos. It’s not a world of objects but of processes. Think of it like quantum physics, where particles and flows coexist, constantly shifting and interacting in a dynamic, interconnected reality.
To see the Three Horizons framework clearly, you have to approach it like a flow — a continuous process of decay and regeneration, of unraveling and renewal. It’s not linear.
It’s systemic.
The Nature of Systems
A system is greater than the sum of its parts. Why? Because of emergence. Systems generate properties that are not inherent in their individual components but arise from their interaction.
This is what makes systemic thinking so powerful: it helps you see the flow, the emergent properties, and the energy fields that sustain or disrupt them.
Emergence is the secret sauce of life itself — just as your body’s systems create the emergent field we call life, systems at every scale operate in much the same way.
So let’s look at Horizon 1 not as an object but as an energy field. What sustains it? What feeds its vitality? To understand Horizon 1 — the “business-as-usual” system — you need to see it as a dynamic, living process. Like any system, Horizon 1 thrives because it is supported by specific feedback loops, intentional energy flows, and a clear purpose. Yes, every system has a purpose. The purpose of Horizon 1 is to sustain itself, even if it’s crumbling at the edges.
Horizon 1 has a stubborn way of clinging to life. As it faces disruption from Horizon 2, it often doubles down on its core logic, radicalizing itself in a desperate bid for survival. This radicalization takes many forms, from entrenched political ideologies to corporate strategies that mask themselves as solutions.
Consider the concept of sustainability. While it has been embraced as the gold standard for addressing the crises of our time, it is, in reality, a mechanism designed to sustain Horizon 1.
As Bill Reed and Carol Sanford have pointed out, sustainability is a slow way of dying. It seeks to conserve, to hold onto what is, rather than embrace the regenerative forces that drive true systemic change. Sustainability may slow the bleeding, but it doesn’t stop the decline — it fails to align with the dynamic feedback loops of Horizon 2, which demand innovation, adaptation, and transformation.
The Role of Horizon 2
Now shift your gaze to Horizon 2 — the arena of disruption. This is where feedback loops — both positive and negative — begin to collide with Horizon 1. From a systemic perspective, these loops are the forces that either sustain or destabilize the existing energy field. Horizon 2 doesn’t just “affect” Horizon 1; it pushes and pulls at its foundations, reshaping the energy flows that keep it alive.
But Horizon 2 isn’t just a wrecking ball. It’s also the bridge to Horizon 3 — the emerging future. To understand this process, we map out the feedback loops of both Horizon 1 and Horizon 3. We look at the forces sustaining them: technical, energetic, social, cultural, and yes, even conscious. Because systems are conscious — driven by purpose, intention, and interaction.
In Horizon 2, we are witnessing a battle of energy fields. Some loops strengthen the old system, propping up Horizon 1’s fading structures. Others siphon energy away, feeding the emerging possibilities of Horizon 3. This interplay is where the future is decided — not as a linear outcome, but as a dynamic process of emergence.
The Three Horizons as Energy Fields
When we approach the Three Horizons as energy fields, we see them for what they are: dynamic systems sustained by processes, not objects. Horizon 1, while in decline, still thrives on certain inputs — cultural norms, economic flows, technological dependencies.
To understand its behavior, we ask: What feeds it? What keeps it alive?
And then we turn to Horizon 2, asking: What disrupts it? What feedback loops — positive or negative — are at play?
From here, we can see Horizon 3 not as a distant goal but as an emerging energy field with enormous potential. Its emergence depends on the intentionality of the feedback loops we build today. Horizon 2 is the crucible where this battle plays out — a space of decay and regeneration, where the interplay of forces determines what survives and what fades away.
Systemic Mid-Shift: Mapping the Flow of Change
Systemic thinking gives us a lens to see this process — not as a series of isolated events, but as an evolving flow. By understanding systems as energy fields, we can map their behavior, anticipate their feedback loops, and begin to influence their purpose.
Horizon 1 isn’t just a relic of the past; it’s a thriving process sustained by technical, social, and cultural forces. Horizon 2 isn’t just a disruption; it’s the arena where feedback loops shape the future. And Horizon 3 isn’t just a vision; it’s an emergent possibility waiting to be fed.
So, dear reader, this is where we stand: at the threshold of systemic understanding, looking at the Three Horizons as dynamic energy fields. The challenge — and the opportunity — is to step into this flow, map its feedback loops, and play an active role in shaping the systems that will define our future.
As we’ve seen, the interplay of Horizon 1, Horizon 2, and Horizon 3 reveals a world in flux — a dynamic dance of collapse, disruption, and emergence. But understanding the map is only the beginning.
In Part Three, we’ll explore how to step into this unfolding process, build bridges to the Adjacent Possible, and shape the future.
Part Three delves into the Adjacent Possible, the realm of emergent futures. It examines how Horizon 3 can be nurtured through capacity, capability, and regenerative design. By exploring the interplay of systemic forces, ancient wisdom, and cutting-edge ideas like quantum language, Part Three provides a blueprint for stepping into the future and shaping a thriving new paradigm.
