A Regenerative Design Approach to Our Current Complexity Predicament
Introduction:
I recently received an invitation to engage with the thought-provoking paper “Redesign of Spaceship in Flight.” This paper challenges us to rethink our socio-political and economic systems through a comprehensive systems thinking approach. It presents an invitation to design a new model of regenerative economics that aligns with ecological health and sustainability.
As a response and reaction to this invitation, I am writing this paper to explore the pathways for developing the capacities and capabilities needed to navigate our current complexity predicament. I am often asked what applied regenerative design looks like. I believe this paper sets a path forward for acquiring a regenerative mindset, offering a framework for understanding and engaging with the intricate systems that shape our world. Emphasizing the importance of regenerative design and systemic thinking, this approach aims to create a sustainable future.
Understanding and Redesigning the Meta-Crisis:
Transforming Our Minds for a Regenerative Future
Our world is facing unprecedented complexity, necessitating a paradigm shift in how we understand and navigate our socio-political, economic, and ecological systems.
We have created a system that goes beyond the definition of economic. It is a social, political, cultural, ecological, and economic model that is being referred to in many ways.
Nate Hagens refers to as the “super-organism.” This system has also been called “Moloch” by Scott Alexander, who uses the term to describe the destructive forces of competitive self-interest driving our societal systems towards suboptimal and often catastrophic outcomes. Similarly, it has been likened to “Mordor” from J.R.R. Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings, a dark and oppressive force consuming everything in its path.
This self-terminating model has led us to what Daniel Schmachtenberger calls a “meta-crisis,” an interconnected web of global crises resulting from systemic failures.
The meta-crisis is not just a series of crises but the underlying dynamics that generate catastrophic and existential risks.
In this paper I propose that in order to redesign our current predicament, we must first understand this economic system. We need to develop the capacities for understanding and sense-making. Only from this foundation can we develop the capabilities for agency, enabling us to address the complex challenges of our time and create a sustainable and regenerative future.
Introduction: Redesigning the Superorganism
In order to design regeneratively, it is essential to understand the patterns and principles that define the behavior of a system.
This understanding allows us to create the necessary levers or feedback loops to steer the system away from self-terminating patterns or multipolar traps of degenerative behavior, guiding it into a regenerative, thriving flow.
As Carl Jung wisely noted, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”
Similarly, Lao Tzu’s insight, “Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom,” underscores the importance of deep system knowledge.
To transform our current systems into regenerative ones, we must first thoroughly comprehend their underlying dynamics and behaviors.
In order to redesign the superorganism and address our current predicament, we need to start by redesigning our minds. We need to have systemic knowledge, a point of view, and a cosmovision that permits us to see the system and the impact of our first, second, and third-order effects. Therefore, first and foremost, we need to redesign our minds to have a systemic design and regenerative design capacity.
Regenerative design is not merely about creating buildings, landscapes, or objects, nor is it solely about designing systems. It is fundamentally about transforming our mental frameworks to develop the capacity and capability for understanding complexity and living systems design.
Regenerative design requires a profound shift in our cognitive processes. We must cultivate the ability to perceive and interpret the intricate interdependencies within ecological, social, and economic systems. This means enhancing our sense-making capacities to navigate and engage with the multifaceted challenges we face.
By redesigning our minds, we equip ourselves with the tools to implement regenerative principles effectively. This involves fostering curiosity, building capacity through continuous learning and skill development, and achieving the capability to enact systemic change. Only then can we truly create sustainable and thriving futures, aligning human activities with the natural world in a harmonious and regenerative manner.
To change, redirect, and redesign our current predicament, we need to develop the capacities and capabilities necessary to redesign this superorganism. The complexity of the challenges we face requires a profound shift in how we perceive and engage with the world. It is not enough to simply tweak existing systems; we must reimagine and reconstruct them from the ground up.
Developing Capacities for Understanding and Sense-Making
To begin with, we must enhance our capacities for understanding and sense-making. This involves cultivating a deep comprehension of the intricate and interdependent nature of our global systems. We need to move beyond reductionist thinking and embrace a holistic perspective that recognizes the multifaceted interactions between social, political, cultural, ecological, and economic factors.
Developing these capacities requires a commitment to learning and adaptation. We must invest in education and research that prioritize systems thinking, complexity theory, and interdisciplinary collaboration. By fostering a culture of continuous learning and critical thinking, we can equip ourselves with the tools needed to navigate the uncertainties and complexities of our time.
Once we have established a robust foundation of understanding, we can then focus on developing the capabilities for agency, empowering collective action through regenerative practices and sustainable innovations. By leveraging technology ethically and fostering global cooperation, we can create resilient frameworks that support a regenerative future, prioritizing ecological health and social well-being.
A Path Forward
What I’m suggesting in this paper is a path forward to understand, through the perspectives of different thought leaders who have committed time and resources to this cause, how we can address our first challenge: developing the capacity for understanding and sense-making. By examining the insights from these leaders, we can build the capabilities for agency, empowering individuals and communities to take meaningful action towards systemic change. This involves creating frameworks and structures that support collective decision-making, innovation, and resilience.
It is essential to recognize that nobody fully comprehends the complexity of our current era. We are not merely in an era of change; we are experiencing a change of era. This shift necessitates developing a systemic capacity for sense-making regarding how complex systems evolve and are driven by exponential technologies.
Einstein is quoted as having said, “If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions.”
To co-create a sustainable future, I recommend three crucial steps: A) Develop sense-making capabilities to understand complex systems, B) Adopting a robust process model, and C) engage in collaborative efforts to harness diverse insights and drive systemic change together.
A) Develop Sense-Making Capabilities
My first recommendation is to develop the capabilities to understand and sense-make the complexities of this system. It is from this underdstanding that we will be able to develop the capacity for agency. Only with a profound sense-making capacity built on complexity theory and system understanding can we effectively design and implement transformative changes.
B) Navigating Paradigm Shifts: The Need for a Process Model
We need a process model that comes from a systemic perspective, one that understands our transitional times and helps us design a bridge between paradigms.
Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons model is arguably the best tool for systemic and regenerative design because it is based on understanding the transition between paradigms.
This model invites us to analyze trends, forces, technologies, cultural shifts, and multipolar traps to design the transition between different horizons.
My second recommendation would be to adopt Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons model to guide this process. Employing the Three Horizons model allows us to comprehend how the current system is collapsing due to its self-terminating driving forces. It helps us identify and map the innovations and emerging practices that challenge the status quo (Horizon 2) and the future systems that embody new paradigms and practices (Horizon 3). By understanding and navigating these transitions, we can create a sustainable and regenerative future.
The Three Horizons framework helps us visualize and manage transformative change through three overlapping phases:
- Horizon 1: Represents the current dominant system that is beginning to decline due to its inherent issues and unsustainable practices.
- Horizon 2: Represents the space of innovation and emerging practices that challenge the status quo and begin to bridge the gap between the old and the new.
- Horizon 3: Represents the future system that embodies new paradigms and practices, often emerging from the innovations in Horizon 2.
We need to identify innovations that both sustain the system and enable the evolution of a new system, known as Horizon 3. From this understanding, we can discern the emergence of Horizon 2, which represents the space of innovation. Horizon 3 embodies the future that is emerging. To navigate this, we must understand new waves of thought, thinkers, and leaders. Building our capacities in line with these emerging perspectives is crucial.
I will elaborate further on the Three Horizons framework below.
C) Collaborative Engagement
My Third Recommendation is to pursue Collaborative Engagement.
Once we develop the capacities and create a process for agency — understanding the collapse of Horizon 1, the innovative forces, cultural shifts, and paradigm changes of Horizon 2 — we can design a pathway to realize Horizon 3. However, achieving this requires the collaborative engagement of building partnerships and common efforts with those who already possess the necessary understanding, capacity, commitment, and capability.
There are several such entities, but Three notable examples are R3.0, The Regenesis Group and Alexa Firmenich through her Naia Trust Fund and the Crowther Lab. These organizations exemplify the capabilities and agency needed for this shift. Engaging with them will help us understand and embody these new capacities, allowing us to integrate diverse insights and drive forward the necessary systemic changes.
A) Develop Sense-Making Capabilities
Integrating Visionary Perspectives for Systemic Change
Now, what I suggest is to trigger the development of these capacities by walking you through the perspectives of
1) Daniel Schmachtenberger,
2) Nate Hagens,
3) Indy Johar,
4) Scott Alexander,
5) Elinor Ostrom,
6) Jem Bendell.
This exercise aims to catalyze systemic thinking about our current predicament. I suggest you watch the attached videos to these thought-provoking perspectives, which will help you understand the meta-crisis, the forces at play, and the entanglement of our predicament.
This understanding will guide you in designing solutions and building regenerative pathways to a sustainable future.
In order for us to develop a capacity for sense-making and understanding, we need to be triggered by different thought and visionary perspectives. It is these convening perspectives that enable us to zoom out and gain a systemic perspective. By integrating these visions into one, we simplify complexity into an understanding capacity, enabling us to develop a better sense-making of the complexity of our predicament.
I am suggesting these thought leaders, but obviously, there are many more. This is just a sample of a new emergent way of thinking about solutions. They share a common vision for systemic change but approach it from different perspectives.
Thank you for getting here. What follows is an exercise that will take some time, but I believe it will definitely change the way you see our current reality and predicament. You will find that many of the videos may repeat themselves, but watching them at different times and with different interviewers can be useful. In my case, it has been helpful to double-click and go over them to better understand the insights they bring.
1) Daniel Schmachtenberger’s Perspective on the Meta-Crisis
“We need to address the fundamental incentive structures that drive unhealthy competition and misalignment in our systems” (Daniel Schmachtenberger).
Understanding the Meta-Crisis
Daniel Schmachtenberger is a prominent thinker focusing on the interconnected nature of global crises, which he collectively refers to as the meta-crisis. This term encompasses various systemic issues, such as climate change, economic inequality, technological risks, and societal fragmentation. Schmachtenberger argues that these crises are not isolated but rather symptoms of underlying systemic failures.
Multipolar Traps and Systemic Challenges
Schmachtenberger’s analysis highlights how competitive self-interest, known as multipolar traps, exacerbates these systemic failures. In multipolar traps, individual actors’ rational actions lead to collectively irrational outcomes, driving the system towards unsustainability and self-termination (Daniel Schmachtenberger). These traps create a vicious cycle where technological advancements and economic incentives push towards greater efficiency at the expense of ecological and social stability.
Video Links Topics Covered: 0:00 Intro 4:20 The Metacrisis 15:43 Catastrophes and Dystopias 22:00 The Third Attractor 30:40 Moloch and Values 34:46 Mapping the Metacrisis 43:25 Incentives and Trajectories 51:30 Forced Transparency 58:30 A Qualitative World 1:07:30 What Brings Hope 1:11:30 Faith 1:17:30 Optimism and Pessimism 1:22:10 What’s to Come 1:25:50 Closing
The Third Attractor: A Pathway to Avoid Collapse and Dystopia
Schmachtenberger outlines three potential future scenarios:
- Collapse: This scenario entails a systemic breakdown due to the unsustainable pressures exerted by multipolar traps. It results in the failure of ecological systems, economic collapse, and widespread social disorder.
- Dystopia: In this scenario, centralized control mechanisms are implemented to manage the crises, leading to an authoritarian state that curtails freedoms and perpetuates inequality. While it avoids collapse, it results in a rigid, oppressive society.
- Third Attractor: This represents an antifragile system that not only withstands shocks but becomes stronger through them. Schmachtenberger advocates for this scenario, which involves creating systems that leverage exponential technologies wisely, fostering decentralized yet coordinated governance, and promoting sustainable and regenerative practices. The third attractor aims to align technological advancements with ecological and social well-being, avoiding the pitfalls of collapse and dystopia.
The third attractor proposes a radically different future. It envisions a world where exponential technologies are harnessed to create resilient, adaptable systems that thrive under pressure. This involves:
- Decentralized Governance: Moving away from top-down control to more flexible, participatory forms of governance that can respond swiftly to local and global challenges.
- Regenerative Practices: Shifting economic and industrial practices to those that restore and enhance ecological health rather than deplete it.
- Collective Intelligence: Fostering global cooperation and intelligence-sharing to solve complex problems collectively, rather than competing destructively.
By advocating for the third attractor, Schmachtenberger offers a hopeful vision that seeks to transcend the current trajectories of collapse and dystopia, paving the way for a more sustainable and equitable future.
2) Nate Hagens’ Perspective on the Great Simplification
Nate Hagens is a leading thinker focusing on the intersection of energy, ecology, and economics. His work explores the complex systems underpinning our current global challenges and offers insights into how we might navigate the future.
Here are some key concepts from his perspective:
The Great Simplification
Hagens describes the Great Simplification as an inevitable reduction in the complexity and scale of human systems due to the declining availability of cheap energy resources. He argues that our current socio-economic systems are overly reliant on high energy consumption, primarily from fossil fuels, which are being depleted at an unsustainable rate. As these resources become scarcer, societies will need to adapt to lower energy availability and simpler, more sustainable ways of living. (NATE HAGENS).
The Carbon Pulse
The Carbon Pulse refers to the massive, one-time surge in energy consumption from fossil hydrocarbons that humanity has experienced over the past century. Hagens highlights that this pulse is occurring millions of times faster than the natural creation of these resources, leading to unprecedented economic growth and technological advancements. However, this surge is also driving ecological degradation and climate change. Hagens warns that failing to manage this pulse wisely could lead to severe ecological and societal consequences (The Great Simplification) (resilience).
The Four Horsemen
Hagens uses the metaphor of the Four Horsemen to describe the primary drivers of the current ecological and economic crises:
- Overpopulation: The strain on resources and ecosystems due to the growing human population.
- Overconsumption: The unsustainable use of resources driven by consumer culture and economic growth imperatives.
- Debt and Financialization: The accumulation of debt to maintain economic growth, leading to financial instability.
- Environmental Degradation: The destruction of ecosystems and loss of biodiversity due to industrial activities and pollution.
These are not isolated issues; they are interlinked symptoms of our larger, more complex problem, the “Metacrisis.”
For Further reading and insights from Nate Hagens on Navigating Complexity, Crisis, and Transformation, check my article: The Metacrisis, The Four Horsemen,” and The Great Simplification.
3) Indy Johar and Dark Matter Labs
Overview of Dark Matter Labs
Indy Johar is the co-founder of Dark Matter Labs, a pioneering organization focused on redesigning the underlying systems that govern our societies. Dark Matter Labs works on transforming the foundational “dark matter” — such as monetary, economic, governance, regulatory, and policy systems — to enable a future of mutual thriving and sustainable urban development. The organization collaborates globally with institutions like the UNDP, Climate KIC, and various governments to demonstrate alternative models in neighborhoods, cities, and bioregions (Future Observatory) (Embodied Economics).
Indy Johar’s Vision and Work
Indy Johar’s work at Dark Matter Labs is deeply rooted in the principles of systemic change and complex systems science. He emphasizes the need to move beyond traditional, detached ways of thinking about economic and social systems. Johar argues that the modern world has been built on a theory of detachment, where individuals and institutions operate as independent entities rather than interconnected parts of a whole. This worldview, he believes, has led to a range of systemic issues, including environmental degradation and social inequality (Embodied Economics).
Johar’s approach involves shifting from transactional systems based on extraction and optimization to systems that value care and interdependence. He advocates for a transition from the “bounded autonomous individual” to a recognition of our deep interconnectedness with each other and the natural world. This involves rethinking our relationships with land, assets, and governance to build more equitable and sustainable communities.
Key Concepts
- Theory of Detachment: Johar critiques the traditional view that sees individuals and systems as detached, objective entities. He argues that this perspective has allowed for the exploitation and objectification of both people and nature.
- Interdependence: Emphasizing the interconnected nature of human existence, Johar calls for a systemic reorientation towards recognizing and valuing our interdependencies. This shift challenges conventional economic theories and promotes a more holistic approach to governance and social organization.
- Radical Institutional Innovation: Dark Matter Labs focuses on creating new institutional frameworks that prioritize care, sustainability, and democratic engagement. This includes developing new forms of governance and economic systems that are resilient and adaptive to future challenges.
For further reading, check my article Redefining Reality: A Conversation with Indy Johar on Systemic Transformation
By integrating these concepts, Johar and Dark Matter Labs aim to build the institutional infrastructures necessary for a radically transformed, sustainable future. Their work provides critical insights and practical models for addressing the complex challenges of our time.
4) Scott Alexander’s Meditations on Moloch
Overview of Moloch and Multipolar Traps
“Meditations on Moloch” is a thought-provoking essay by Scott Alexander that delves into competition, game theory, and multipolar traps. First posted in 2014, it quickly gained popularity and circulation among intellectual and rationality communities.
The essay draws on the historical figure Moloch, the biblical Canaanite god associated with war and child sacrifice. Inspired in part by Allen Ginsberg’s famous beatnik poem “Howl,” which evokes the destructive power of Moloch, Alexander opens his essay with a nod to this haunting imagery, setting the stage for a deep exploration of societal and existential challenges.
“Moloch” is a metaphor for the destructive forces of competitive self-interest that drive our societal systems towards suboptimal and often catastrophic outcomes. These forces manifest as multipolar traps, where individual incentives lead to collectively detrimental results, driving societies into what Alexander describes as races to the bottom.
Key Insights and Highlights
Multipolar Traps:
- Alexander defines multipolar traps as situations where competing entities — be they individuals, companies, or nations — are incentivized to act in ways that ultimately harm everyone involved. Classic examples include arms races, environmental degradation, and the overexploitation of resources.
- The essence of a multipolar trap is that the rational actions of individuals lead to irrational and destructive collective outcomes. This is often because each actor is optimizing for their short-term gain at the expense of long-term sustainability.
Technological Impact:
- Alexander highlights how technological advancements exacerbate these traps by creating new opportunities for competition that often disregard other values. For example, technological improvements in automation can lead to widespread job loss and social instability if not managed properly.
Coordination Failures:
- One of the central themes is the failure of coordination. In a world where everyone is acting independently to maximize their own benefit, the lack of effective coordination can lead to outcomes that are detrimental to all. This highlights the need for better governance structures and cooperative frameworks to manage these collective challenges (Hackernoon)
5) Elinor Ostrom’s Principles for Governing the Commons
Elinor Ostrom’s insights on the “commons” captivated me during a chance meeting on a train. As she explained, the “commons” refers to the communal management of resources, challenging traditional notions of state and market control.
Ostrom, a Nobel laureate, demonstrated that self-governance of shared assets through cooperation and clear rules is possible, countering Garrett Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons.” Her principles, derived from global examples, advocate for local autonomy and sustainability, emphasizing that community-managed resources can thrive without external intervention. Her research demonstrated that communities could effectively manage their resources without relying solely on state or market solutions.
Ostrom identified a set of design principles that successful, long-lasting self-governing communities often share.
Key Principles for Managing Commons
- Clearly Defined Boundaries: Effective management requires clear definitions of who has access to the resource and where the resource boundaries lie. This helps prevent overuse and ensures that only those entitled to use the resource can do so.
- Congruence Between Appropriation and Provision Rules and Local Conditions: The rules for using resources should be tailored to local needs and conditions. This ensures that resource management is relevant and effective for the specific community context.
- Collective-Choice Arrangements: Individuals affected by the resource management rules should be able to participate in modifying those rules. This inclusive approach increases compliance and the sense of ownership among community members.
- Monitoring: There should be monitoring of resource use and conditions, carried out by individuals who are accountable to the community. This helps ensure that rules are followed and resources are used sustainably.
- Graduated Sanctions: Communities should implement graduated sanctions for rule violators, starting with mild penalties and increasing for repeated or severe violations. This maintains order while allowing for fair and proportionate responses to infractions.
- Conflict-Resolution Mechanisms: Accessible and low-cost mechanisms should be available to resolve conflicts among users or between users and officials. Effective conflict resolution helps maintain cooperation and trust within the community.
- Minimal Recognition of Rights to Organize: The rights of community members to devise their own institutions should be recognized by external authorities. This autonomy is crucial for the effective self-governance of resources.
- Nested Enterprises: For larger common-pool resources, management activities should be organized in multiple layers of nested enterprises. This allows for coordination across different levels and scales, enhancing the overall effectiveness of resource management.
Impact and Relevance
Ostrom’s principles challenge the traditional dichotomy of state versus market solutions by showing that local communities can manage their resources sustainably and equitably. Her work emphasizes the importance of decentralization, local knowledge, and participatory governance in addressing complex social and environmental challenges. These insights are highly relevant for designing new systems that prioritize sustainability and resilience in the management of shared resources (New Local) .
For further reading, check my article Will the Commons disrupt the Market and State?
6) Jem Bendell’s Contributions through Deep Adaptation and Breaking Together
Deep Adaptation Paper
Jem Bendell’s “Deep Adaptation” paper presents a stark analysis of the impending societal collapse due to climate change. Bendell argues that traditional mitigation strategies may no longer be sufficient, and we must prepare for significant disruptions to our social and economic systems. The framework of Deep Adaptation centers around three key elements:
- Resilience: Enhancing the ability of our communities and systems to withstand climatic shocks.
- Relinquishment: Letting go of certain assets, behaviors, and beliefs that exacerbate the ecological crisis.
- Restoration: Reviving and restoring natural ecosystems and human relationships that provide meaning and sustenance.
Bendell’s perspective emphasizes the urgent need to shift our focus from mere sustainability to profound systemic change to cope with the inevitable challenges ahead.
Breaking Together
In his book “Breaking Together,” Bendell delves deeper into how societies can adapt to the changing era. The book, builds on “Deep Adaptation,” exploring the systemic logic of collapse and how to respond. Bendell investigates the concept of “Imperial Modernity” and introduces “Ecolibertarianism” as a transformative approach.
The book is divided into two parts: reasons for collapse and responses to it. Bendell emphasizes the importance of community, self-governance, and ecological wisdom, offering a comprehensive guide for navigating and thriving in the face of societal collapse.
The second part of the book outlines a path forward, proposing strategies for systemic adaptation and resilience. Bendell advocates for a holistic approach that integrates ecological, economic, and social dimensions to create robust systems capable of navigating the complexities of the modern world.
Key Concepts:
- Integrated Adaptation: Emphasizing the need for comprehensive strategies that address the interconnectedness of ecological, economic, and social systems.
- Community Engagement: Fostering local resilience through community-based initiatives that empower individuals and groups to act collectively.
- Sustainable Practices: Promoting practices that restore and enhance natural ecosystems, ensuring long-term ecological balance.
By incorporating these strategies, Bendell offers a roadmap for creating resilient communities that can thrive amidst the profound changes anticipated in the coming decades. His work provides valuable insights into how we can build adaptive capacities and foster sustainable, equitable futures.
Here is a review by R3.0 of Bendell’s Breaking Together book.
Good. If you made it to here, congratulations!!.
Thank you for your effort. I hope you agree with me that by exploring the work of these top leaders, we’re able to gain a profound perspective on our current challenges and potential solutions. Integrating their insights with the Three Horizons framework can guide us in developing a strategic approach to transitioning towards a regenerative future.
B) Embracing Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework for a Thriving Future
The Three Horizons method provides a deeper understanding of short, medium, and long-term futures by recognizing qualitative differences in these time spans. Horizon 1 represents the dominant system at present, or ‘business as usual,’ which may eventually be superseded by new ways of doing things. Horizon 3 embodies the long-term successor to business-as-usual, growing from fringe activities that introduce completely new ways of doing things. Horizon 2 consists of transition activities and innovations, some of which support Horizon 1 while others pave the way for Horizon 3.
The Three Horizons framework helps us visualize and understand these shifts, allowing us to see the patterns of change and the interactions between different time horizons. This model enables us to engage with the future more effectively, creating strategies that acknowledge the interplay between sustaining the old, fostering innovation, and embracing new paradigms.
In order to redesign the superorganism and address our current predicament, we need to start by redesigning our minds. Regenerative design is not merely about creating buildings, landscapes, or objects, nor is it solely about designing systems. It is fundamentally about transforming our mental frameworks to develop the capacity and capability for understanding complexity and living systems design.
If you were able to grasp the different perspectives of the thought leaders above, you are bound to understand the complexity of our predicament. Developing a robust process model to navigate these transitional times is crucial. In our rapidly evolving world, the need for such a model has never been more critical.
We face a multitude of complex challenges that require a holistic and systemic approach. This is where Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework comes into play, offering a powerful tool for understanding and facilitating the transition between paradigms. Sharpe’s model is arguably the best tool for systemic and regenerative design because it helps us understand the dynamics of change over time. It allows us to analyze trends, forces, technologies, cultural shifts, and multipolar traps that shape our future. By leveraging this model, we can design a pathway that bridges the present (Horizon 1), the transitional innovations (Horizon 2), and the future we aspire to create (Horizon 3).
Horizon 3: The Regenerative Revolution
In a world where technological advancements and innovative terms are coined daily, it’s peculiar that the term “RegenTech” has yet to surface. However, the concept is steadily emerging, representing the crucial bridge within Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework, connecting Horizon One (business as usual) and Horizon Three (the future we desire). As a disruptive force in Horizon Two, RegenTech has the potential to reshape our world by marrying technology and regenerative principles.
The regenerative paradigm embodies the concept of syntropy, which stands in opposition to entropy. While entropy represents the natural tendency towards disorder and decay, syntropy refers to the process by which living systems organize and renew themselves, ultimately contributing to life’s continued existence and growth. In the context of RegenTech, syntropy signifies a new emergent paradigm that thrives according to the patterns and principles of living systems. RegenTech is not merely a new buzzword; it’s a call to action. We must actively pursue the development and implementation of technologies and systems that adhere to the principles of syntropy and regeneration. Only by doing so can we bridge the gap between our current reality and the sustainable, life-affirming future we envision.
Regeneration: The Essence of Life
Regeneration is not just a systemic evolutionary process but essentially life itself — a thriving flow that intricately weaves together diverse, interdependent elements to sustain life. Simplifying this, we understand regeneration as the very essence of vitality and systemic interconnectivity, manifesting through patterns and principles that drive a purposeful evolutionary process.
To navigate this complexity, we need to understand the systemic perspective of emergence, the concept of the bamboo effect, and further, Nora Bateson’s concept of aphanipoiesis.
This exploration will help us grasp how the Third Horizon can emerge, where today its invisible pre-emergent state holds the promise of a transformative future. This horizon encapsulates the potential for systemic change and regeneration, illustrating how current unseen efforts are paving the way for the emergence of new paradigms.
The “bamboo effect” serves as a profound metaphor within the narrative of regeneration. It illustrates the silent, yet relentless, accumulation of strength and potential beneath the surface. For years, the bamboo’s roots expand unseen, laying the groundwork for future growth. Then, when conditions align, this concealed energy manifests in a rapid, visible surge. This process reflects the patience and resilience required for transformative change. Just as the bamboo quietly prepares for its moment of explosive growth, so too do regenerative efforts simmer below the threshold of visibility, awaiting the right moment to reveal their full impact.
Bridging the Horizons
Bridging the gap from Horizon One (H1) to Horizon Three (H3) demands innovative pathways, one of which could be the regenerative design pathway. As we navigate the Three Horizons framework, we journey beyond present constraints to envisage a future where technology and ecological wisdom merge, paving the way for a regenerative existence. This journey transcends traditional boundaries, proposing a “horizon-free” outlook that integrates our actions with the rhythms of the natural world, advocating for a future that not only sustains but regenerates, knitting humanity and nature into a harmonious coexistence.
C) Collaborative Engagement
As mentioned above, my third recommendation is to pursue Collaborative Engagement. Once we develop the capacities and create a process for agency — understanding the collapse of Horizon 1, the innovative forces, cultural shifts, and paradigm changes of Horizon 2 — we can design a pathway to realize Horizon 3. However, achieving this requires building partnerships and common efforts with those who already possess the necessary understanding, capacity, commitment, and capability.
Here, I am providing a perspective on three efforts, movements, and groups that are working on and committed to profound solutions. These notable examples are R3.0, The Regenesis Group, and Alexa Firmenich through her Naia Trust Fund and the Crowther Lab. These organizations exemplify the capabilities and agency needed for this shift. Engaging with them will help us understand and embody these new capacities, allowing us to integrate diverse insights and drive forward the necessary systemic changes.
Regenesis Group and the Regenerative Practitioner Program
The Regenesis Group, of which Bill Reed is a co-founder, is a global leader in regenerative development — a comprehensive approach to land use, community development, and the built environment. This approach transcends traditional sustainability by aiming to harmonize human activities with natural systems, thereby enhancing the health and vitality of both communities and ecosystems. Regenesis integrates whole systems thinking into their projects, providing a framework for regenerative design that enhances physical, social, and spiritual well-being.
One of their key educational offerings is The Regenerative Practitioner Program. This program is designed for professionals in architecture, planning, and community development who seek to integrate regenerative principles into their work. It provides a deep dive into the concepts and practices of regenerative development, equipping practitioners with the knowledge and skills to create projects that contribute positively to their environments and communities.
r3.0
r3.0 promotes Redesign for Resilience and Regeneration. As a global common good not-for-profit platform, r3.0 crowdsources open recommendations for necessary transformations across diverse fields and sectors, in response to the ecological and social collapses humanity is experiencing, in order to achieve a thriving, regenerative and distributive economy and society.
r3.0 catalyzes the transformation to a regenerative and inclusive global economy by:
- Crowd-sourcing expert inputs on Blueprints with recommendations on their redesign for next generation practices in the fields of 1) reporting, 2) accounting, 3) data and 4) new business models;
- Supporting the piloting of these recommendations to prove their viability; and, 3. Scaling up these new practices through Dissemination Programs and Solutions building. The different activities are bundled in a work-ecosystem to enable a continuous exchange of feedback and cross-pollination.
r3.0 has finalized a first generation of Blueprints, and are circling back to make a foundational addition — Blueprint Zero: Just Transitions to Regenerative Economies & Cultures.
Blueprint ZERO Overview
This project will ideate a Blueprint for regenerative economies and cultures by synthesizing crowdsourced input from experts across a broad spectrum of alternatives to the status quo when it comes to economies & cultures.
The Blueprint will establish first principles from the foundations of economics in the Greek etymology of oikonomos (oiko = house + nomo = laws, rules) as management of the “home” writ large (ie earth), and the foundations of culture, with its place-based etymological roots in the cultivation of soil (ie earth). It will also explore non-Western (ie Eastern, Indigenous, etc) etymologies and histories of these concepts. From these foundations, the Blueprint will critique current predominant economies and cultures by assessing the degree to which they align with or diverge from these first principles. Following the standard r3.0 Blueprint hypothesis of divergence, the Blueprint will identify the primary elements of this divergence, to set foundations for exploring alternatives. The synthesis will the serve as a platform for laying out pathways forward, articulated at a general level of specificity. This sets the groundwork for “activation” work after the publication of the Blueprint.
r3.0 Blueprints
Summary of “From Monocapitalism to Multicapitalism: 21st Century System Value Creation”
The white paper by Bill Baue outlines the transition from monocapitalism, which prioritizes financial capital, to multicapitalism, which balances multiple capitals (natural, human, social, intellectual, constructed, and financial) to achieve sustainable system value creation. It critiques the shortcomings of monocapitalism, emphasizing ecological and social degradation, and advocates for respecting the carrying capacities of all capitals. The paper provides case studies, theoretical foundations, and practical pathways for implementing multicapitalism, proposing a shift from growth-centric economic models to those prioritizing sustainability and regeneration. The ultimate goal is a systemic transformation fostering a thriveable future
Summary of “The Big Sustainability Illusion — Finding a Maturation Pathway for Regeneration & Thriving” by Ralph Thurm
Ralph Thurm’s paper critiques the limitations of current Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices, arguing they create an illusion of progress while failing to achieve true sustainability. He highlights the need for a shift from incremental ESG improvements to a regenerative and distributive economy. Thurm emphasizes the importance of contextualizing performance within real-world ecological and social thresholds. The paper outlines steps for escaping the ESG bubble and calls for systemic change to achieve genuine sustainability, focusing on holistic education, integral governance, and true value measurement.
Alexa Firmenich and the Crowther Lab & Naia Trust Fund
Alexa Firmenich is an investor, consultant, and facilitator with a strong focus on climate and biodiversity. She co-directs SEED, a center within the Crowther Lab at ETH Zurich.
SEED is pioneering the world’s most holistic measure of biodiversity, reflecting multiple scales of nature’s complexity for any location on the planet. The goal is to steer financial and political decision-makers to crystallize the value of nature into the global economy, thus incentivizing the protection and regeneration of biodiversity on a large scale.
Firmenich is also the founder of the Naia Trust Fund, which is dedicated to creating the conditions on Earth for all beings to thrive. The fund supports early-stage nature-based solutions, scientific research, and new economic models. Additionally, Firmenich is a wilderness guide and the host of the “Lifeworlds” podcast, which explores themes of biodiversity, beauty, and human connection to nature.
Authors Personal Letter
Dear Reader,
Thank you for reaching this point. This journey is more than an article; it is a course in redesigning our minds and perspectives. We explored the necessity of developing robust process models to navigate our transitional times, emphasizing the Three Horizons Framework and the integration of curiosity, capacity, and capability into our systemic thinking.
By understanding the complexities of our current systems and engaging with visionary thought leaders and organizations, we can pave the way for a regenerative future.
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