How Do We Solve Our Current Predicament?

This article serves as an introduction to my upcoming Nature Finance paper.

I’ve mentioned many times ( 1 — 2 ) the concept of the Metacrisis, as Daniel Schmachtenberger defines it:

“Metacrisis is the convergence of multiple global crises that interconnect and exacerbate each other, posing systemic risks to humanity.”

In the swirling chaos of today’s world, it’s clear that we face a profound and multifaceted crisis. This Metacris isn’t just about climate change, economic instability, or social upheaval.

Although I’m concerned about all the perspectives of the Metacrisis, my focus is on the planetary boundaries, particularly the loss of biodiversity.

My upcoming paper, Nature Finance, specifically aims to address solutions for the loss of biodiversity.

Biodiversity is not just an environmental concern; it’s a cornerstone of planetary health.

It maintains the balance and resilience of ecosystems, which in turn support human life and civilization. The alarming rate of biodiversity loss undermines this balance, threatening to push our planet beyond the safe operating space of the Holocene epoch into a new, unpredictable state. That we are now calling the Anthropocene.

We are at a critical juncture.

My understanding is that biodiversity loss is now a greater risk than climate change.

Biodiversity loss is now driving climate change.

The Amazon and various global forests, along with permafrost regions, are shifting from carbon sinks to sources, releasing CO2 instead of capturing it. This alarming change is exacerbating climate change, driven significantly by biodiversity loss. As climate change progresses, it further degrades biodiversity, creating a self-activating feedback loop where the loss of biodiversity accelerates climate change, which in turn leads to further biodiversity loss.

Biodiversity, as I see it, is the thriving life that maintains our current living planet in homeostasis. It creates a safe operating space for humanity as defined by Johan Rockström. The balance and right amount of biodiversity stabilize the planetary temperature during the Holocene, permitting Gaia to achieve homeostasis. It was at this time that humanity could evolve in stable conditions and flourish. But this rapid evolution was fueled by monoculture agriculture and what Nate Hagens calls the carbon pulse, a term describing the rapid increase in energy consumption from fossil fuels that has driven exponential economic and population growth.

This population boom was accompanied by significant degradation. During this time, we surpassed the planetary boundaries. In terms of biodiversity, we lost 70% of all living animal life and 50% of all marine life in the last 50 years. The perfect combination of biodiversity that once existed to sustain a stable planet has now been more than halved, while human activities continue to be detrimental in both impact and exponentially.

This is one of the critical issues of our Metacrisis today, and biodiversity loss is one of the greatest challenges we face.

The need for urgent restoration

We are in an urgent situation. Fortunately, we are awakening to it. The 30 by 30 agreement, where 196 countries committed to restoring or achieving 30 percent of nature by 2030, is a testament to this awakening. However, this ambitious goal requires us to double the amount of nature in just six years and quadruple marine life in our oceans. Achieving this will take an unprecedented challenge.

As I articulated in this 2015 keynote speech, we need to find a hole in the wall — a way to hack the system from within. This will require dedicated system skippers and navigators willing to steer this colossal entity onto a new path. We need to steer the superorganism into what Daniel Schmachtenberger calls the third attractor, a scenario where humanity evolves to higher levels of coordination and mutual benefit, avoiding both dystopia and collapse.

This is the moment for bold action and innovative thinking, harnessing our collective efforts to create a sustainable and thriving future.

So how do we go about doing this?

As Einstein famously said, “We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” We need a new mindset based on the new science of living systems theory, systemic design, and regenerative design. Additionally, we probably must embrace the Buddhist Zen concept of interbeing and interbecoming.

It is from this cosmovision that we need to steer our way through this upcoming Metacrisis, what Thomas Friedman defines as a stampede of black elephants. We are not facing black swans; we are facing the consequences of our own actions. And now we need to confront this predicament.

I suggest, as I will develop in the mentioned upcoming paper, that we use nature finance as a way of designing a method to steer this super-organism.

This is based on a trim-tab strategy. A trim-tab is a small rudder that enables the movement of the rudder of big ships, acting on the rudder and not the ship itself. The ship is too big, with too much inertia to be moved directly, but we can move the rudder.

The journey and the challenge are similar to what Paul Atreides faced when he rode the sandworm in Dune II. This analogy illustrates the scale and nature of the challenge we face.

Paul Atreides stands on the scorching dunes, the weight of destiny on his shoulders. Nearby, the thumper pulses rhythmically, sending vibrations deep into the sands of Arrakis. The ground trembles, signaling the approach of a colossal sandworm. The Fremen watch in hushed anticipation as Shai-Hulud’s gargantuan maw breaks the surface, drawn by the thumper’s lure. Timing is everything. As the worm surges upward, Paul sprints forward, heart pounding. He leaps onto its rough, segmented hide, feeling the immense power beneath him. With swift precision, he drives his hooks into the worm’s armor-like skin, securing his grip.

The worm rears, but Paul holds firm, climbing higher until he reaches the crest. There, he finds the worm’s sensitive steering points and begins to guide it with subtle movements. The creature responds, swaying to his command. Paul, now in control, rides the sandworm across the vast desert, becoming one with the mightiest force of Arrakis.

In the same way, we need to find and utilize small but powerful mechanisms to redirect the larger system.

By leveraging principles from regenerative design and systemic thinking, and incorporating insights from nature finance, we can create a new pathway forward.

Today, we stand at an unprecedented crossroads of change. The convergence of new sciences and technologies offers us a unique opportunity. Regenerative design, with its deep understanding of living systems, coupled with complexity theory, system design, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and crypto platforms, is revolutionizing our approach. Carbon credit platforms are emerging, and digital biology, as highlighted by Jensen Wang, CEO of NVIDIA, is pushing the boundaries of what’s possible.

This wealth of knowledge about living systems, combined with new regenerative design theories and practices, is coming together at just the right moment. These advancements provide the tools we need to build a trim tab — a small but powerful mechanism that can steer our colossal superorganism toward a sustainable future. With this integrated vision, we have the potential to redirect our path, leveraging the latest innovations to create a more resilient and regenerative world.

The concept of nature finance, is a groundbreaking discipline that stands at the intersection of ecology and economics. At its core, nature finance is the science of Measuring, Monitoring, Verifying, Certifying, Assetizing, Securitizing, and Trading — collectively known as MMVCAST — of nature’s ecosystem services.

Critics may argue that this approach is rooted in the same mindset that created the problems we are facing.

I acknowledge that Charles Eisenstein and Daniel Christian Wahl and others might argue that this approach is reductionist, that I am trying to solve a problem without understanding third and fourth causes and effects, without viewing it systemically.

They might be right, but for the last years, I have worked alongside Bill Reed and John Fullerton, recognized thought leaders in regenerative design and development. From them, I have learned and come to understand and apply regenerative design principles — the very principles that living systems use to thrive and reach sustainability.

It’s my understanding that today we can apply these principles to design regenerative systems and transform existing extractive and degenerative systems to steer ourselves out of our current predicament.

I have studied, researched, and written extensively on system thinking, theory, and design, and on regenerative design systems for the last 10 years. Since meeting Elinor Ostrom in 2010, I have specialized in commons design, spending a decade designing digital commons for companies like Telefónica, Grupo Pão de Açúcar, Natura Cosméticos, Tenaris, and several others. Additionally, I have founded several successful digital startups. TAQE

From my experience in Wall Street , I can draw upon a profound comprehension of our current financial system. From 1990 and for over t 20 years, I specialized in finance, earning an MBA from Harvard, working on Wall Street, and serving as vice president of Citicorp Venture Capital. Later, I became the Managing Director of several private equity funds backed by leading institutions such as Goldman Sachs Partners Fund, AIG, First Boston, and Bank Boston. Additionally, I have taught finance and capital markets at both the Universidad de Belgrano and UCA.

I bought the whole story and agreed to work under its incentives in order to become a predator.

I’ve been in the belly of the beast,

Picture me on Wall Street, decked out in an Armani suit with Bulls and Bears suspenders and a power tie to match. Private equity and leveraged buyouts are the most extractive tools finance discovered in the 90s.

Let me be clear: I’m sharing my Bio not to review my resume, but to let you understand the many corridors and senior-level interactions I’ve had with those running the show.

The knowledge and experience that I acquired, which in some way made me successful, also made me very uncomfortable with myself. On one side, it gave me the understanding of how the system works, but it also gave me the strength to leave it, armed with the firm belief that this super-organism can be steered away from its self-termination. Over time, I came to understand the concept of a trim tab that could drive finance towards a more sustainable future.

Fortunatelly I was able to get out.

This was not an easy process. It took years of unlearning, including monastic experiences with Thich Nhat Hanh in the monastery of Plum Village, expeditions into the heart of the Amazon in Ecuador and Peru, journeys to the Arctic to witness climate change firsthand, and visits to the shantytowns of many Latin American countries filming social entrepreneurs.

I even ran seven marathons non-stop, self-sustained, across the Atacama Desert. In hindsight, this experience feels akin to that of a serpent shedding its skin — one that has become small, uncomfortable, old, and infected with parasites.

If you look at my history over the last 20 years, this process has been one of continuous search for solutions.

Since my first book Sustainability 2.0 (2007), I have been trying to find a way to integrate technology, sustainability, and system design for the last two decades. Escaping the belly of the beast was no easy endeavor. But, as they say in Spanish “para muestra vale un botón” a button is worth a sample, I am Exhibit A of a profound transformation — from a Wall Street Armani suit, power tie, and suspenders of Bulls and Bears, to finding a new way to redesign the system.

The conditions are ripe, and I believe it’s possible. Numerous legislations and over 25 COP meetings on climate change have not succeeded in reducing emissions, the degradation of biodiversity, or deforestation. I believe that we need to adopt a bold, innovative approach to redirect the course.

Nature finance is emerging under many names, with Biodiversity Credits being one of them. There are many efforts at this time, including the World Economic Forum, the Land Banking Group, the Crowther Lab, the EU Nature Restoration Law, UBS Biodiversity Finance, and the UN State of Finance Approach. This is an emergent movement coming together at this crucial moment.

We have an enormous task ahead. These are challenging times, but we can only do our best. As Churchil stated: I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat.

I am convinced that we are going to pull this off.

We are witnessing the dawn of a new era where finance intersects with nature, and where our collective efforts can steer us towards a more sustainable future. This is our moment to make a difference, to harness the power of innovation, and to rally together for the sake of our planet. With determination and a shared vision, we can transform our world and secure a thriving future for generations to come.

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